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Trump China Visit & Geopolitical Risk Reset: Escalation & Taiwan Tensions Resurface
·Geopolitical
Scenario-0.15 Neutral$81,092
Trump China Visit & Geopolitical Risk Reset: De-escalation & Trade Deal Optimism
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.41 Bullish$81,053
Daily BTC Outlook — May 12, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.30 Bullish$80,871
Iran-US Ceasefire Negotiations & War Risk Premium: Military Escalation & Regional Conflict Expansion
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.09 Neutral$80,962
Iran-US Ceasefire Negotiations & War Risk Premium: Stalemate & Ongoing Tensions (Likely Base Case)
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.18 Neutral$81,254
Iran-US Ceasefire Negotiations & War Risk Premium: Rapid De-escalation & Ceasefire Agreement (Next 48-72h)
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.48 Bullish$81,359
Daily BTC Outlook — May 11, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.29 Bullish$80,714
US-Iran Escalation vs De-escalation Fork: Stalemate & Frozen Tensions
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.14 Neutral$81,518
US-Iran Escalation vs De-escalation Fork: Diplomatic Breakthrough & Ceasefire
·Geopolitical
Scenario-0.06 Neutral$81,547
US-Iran Escalation vs De-escalation Fork: Military Escalation & Strait Blockade
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.15 Neutral$81,629
Daily BTC Outlook — May 10, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.28 Bullish$80,717
Geopolitical Risk Reset: Gaza Ceasefire Collapse vs. De-escalation: Stalemate: Frozen Conflict, Elevated Risk Premium
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.20 Bullish$80,592
Geopolitical Risk Reset: Gaza Ceasefire Collapse vs. De-escalation: De-escalation: Putin's Ukraine Peace Signals Broader Détente
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.43 Bullish$80,611
Geopolitical Risk Reset: Gaza Ceasefire Collapse vs. De-escalation: Escalation: Regional Conflict Spreads, Oil Shock
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.08 Neutral$80,581
Daily BTC Outlook — May 9, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.15 Neutral$80,217
Iran-US Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Major Escalation / Broad Regional Conflict
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.02 Neutral$80,387
Iran-US Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Contained Military Standoff / Tit-for-Tat Strikes
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.18 Neutral$80,321
Iran-US Military Escalation & Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Rapid De-escalation / Diplomatic Breakthrough
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.57 Bullish$80,270
Daily BTC Outlook — May 8, 2026
·Daily BTC
Daily Outlook+0.25 Bullish$79,655
US-Iran Escalation & Oil Market Volatility: Military Escalation & Strait Closure
·Geopolitical
Scenario+0.28 Bullish$79,722
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